Total of the Week - Guaranteed

[Pick Bot]

Auburn/Alabama Under 47.5 3.3% play
Nobody is talking about how good Auburn’s defense has been this season. Alabama’s offense really has not been challenged with the exception of the LSU game where they scored just 10 points. A lot of their offensive totals have been inflated because their defense has scored 9 TD’s on 20 turnovers forced which is just outrageous. Auburn has just 12 turnovers on the season, but let’s get to some facts for this game.

Auburn, relies heavily on the running game and they get Pettway back here pretty fresh so I expect that to be the same approach for this game because of how good Auburn’s defense is this year. Auburn however struggles on offense when facing a top 32 run defense they have scored 13, 18, and 7 points. I’d be surprised if they score more than 13 or 14 points in this one. Alabama has allowed 12 total TD’s, they are the #1 run defense and have allowed just 1 TD in the red zone at home. OVerally they have allowed just 35% TD’s in the red zone all year!

Auburn’s defense really getting over shadowed here they have held all 11 opponents under their season average for points and should keep Alabama in the 20’s for this game in my opinion. They are also 1 of 5 teams to not give up 30+ points in a game. I don’t expect Alabama to do anything crazy here on offense they don’t need anyone getting injured and they just need to win this game by 1 point so expect a very vanilla approach. Auburn’s defense has allowed just 14 TD’s on the year with only 4 rushing TD’s allowed. They are allowing 26% red zone TD% in conference play 33.3% overall. They played very well against the 3 teams with running QB’s in Clemson, A&M, and Miss State holding them to 33% in the red zone so I expect more of the same in this game.

Auburn is also 9-2 to the under in their last 11 conference games, their last 8 visits to Alabama have gone under 6 times, and Alabama’s defense really gears up when they play a good opponent as the total has gone under 16-5-1 in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.