4-Dime POD (67.5 % on these plays this year!)

[Pick Bot]

Take Twins -1.5 @-110 4Dimes
I won't lie we ran into a bit of a struggle as of late and I posted how my POD's have gone over the course of the year so you can understand that following me over the long haul is what you do not the short term. It's all in the timing and to avoid having bad luck with timing just keep following me. I've been here before and I'll be back again!

Now on to Tuesday's play. I'm taking Nick Blackburn at home over Kyle Davies to come up with a great performance. Blackburn had a quality start in his last start proving to me that he was not just a 1st half wonder and he'll go at home where he has a 2.95 ERA this year! He'll be backed by the Twins who are scoring 6.52 runs per 9 innings in their last 5 vs. RHP with a 3.63 BP ERA. Twins are 13-3 in Blackburns last 16 as a home favorite and 6 of the 7 home wins with him on the mound in 2009 have come by more than one run. In fact the Twins have won 70.9% of their home wins by more than 1 run this year. They'll go up against Davies who has just been terrible.

Davies has a 14.29 ERA over his last three starts, but that's not even as bad as it truly is as he is 1-7 in his last 8 starts. Davies is a fly ball pitcher and it won't translate well here in Minnesota. I'll take my chances as the Royals have lost 75% of their road losses by more than one run.

Blackburn has a 2.25 ERA against the Royals while the Royals are just 3-12 vs. RH starters in their last 15 so I'm confident laying the run line here.