3* HEAVY HITTER on Magic +6½

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3* HEAVY HITTER on BYU +3

Arizona arrives in Provo with a perfect 20-0 record, but this is their most dangerous trap of the season. The Marriott Center is one of the most hostile environments in the Big 12 and BYU is catching 3.5 points as a Top-15 home underdog.

BYU is coming off an emotional win against Utah where freshman phenom AJ Dybantsa set a school record with 43 points on Saturday. He is the most explosive scorer in the country right now and Arizonas perimeter defense will have its hands full.

Both teams are playing their second game in three days after Saturday conference matchups. This short rest situation favors the home team, especially at the high altitude in Provo.

Arizona has been dominant, but they only make 6.3 three-pointers per game, which ranks near the bottom of the country. They rely heavily on inside scoring and midrange jumpers to move the needle.

BYU has the offensive variance to break Arizona's streak because they rank near the top of the nation in three-point attempts and transition pace. If the Cougars get hot from deep, Arizona does not have the perimeter volume to keep up in a shootout.

The Wildcats' scoring average drops by nearly 10 points per game when they leave Tucson. They are averaging 94.3 points at home but only 84.5 on the road this season.

BYU won this matchup on the road last season and they have the confidence to pull the outright upset tonight. I expect a high-scoring battle that comes down to the final possession.

The Cougars are 17-2 for a reason and getting more than a possession at home is too much value to pass up. I am riding with the home dog and the hot hand of Dybantsa.

I like the BYU +3.5 (-112)

1* Free Pick on Arizona/BYU: over 162

Arizona and BYU are two of the fastest teams in the country. This total is high for a reason, but it still isn't high enough.

Tommy Lloyd has the Wildcats running at a top-10 pace nationally. They look to score in the first eight seconds of the shot clock and rarely slow down.

Arizona ranks near the top of the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. They thrive on getting to the rim and finishing in transition before the defense can set.

BYU plays a similar brand of basketball under Kevin Young. They prioritize NBA spacing and hunt for three-point looks on almost every possession.

The Cougars shoot the ball at a massive volume from deep. At home in the Marriott Center, those shots tend to fall at a much higher clip.

The altitude in Provo is a real factor in this matchup. Visiting teams often wear down late in the game, which leads to lazy transition defense and easy buckets.

Arizonas defense is athletic, but they struggle to chase shooters off the line when the game turns into a track meet. BYU will get plenty of open looks from the corners tonight.

Both teams played on Saturday and are on short rest. Fatigue usually hits the defensive end of the floor before it affects the shooters.

Tired legs lead to reaching and more fouls. Both squads are reliable at the free-throw line, which provides the "cheap" points needed to push this over the number late.

Expect a game played in the mid-to-high 80s for both sides. The possession count will be through the roof.

I like the Over 162.5 (-110).

5* NO BRAINER on Duke -6

Duke at home is a different animal and this number is far too low.

The Blue Devils are coming off a dominant performance on Saturday and have all the momentum.

Louisville is forced to travel to Durham on just one day of rest after a grueling road game.

The Cardinals have been sloppy with the ball and struggle against elite pressure.

Duke ranks in the top tier of the ACC in defensive turnover rate.

They will turn those Louisville mistakes into easy transition buckets all night long.

Duke also holds a massive edge in effective field goal percentage.

They are hitting nearly 40 percent of their threes when playing at Cameron Indoor Stadium.

Louisvilles perimeter defense is leaky and gives up too many open looks to quality shooters.

The Blue Devils have the bench depth to keep fresh legs on the floor during this quick turnaround.

Louisvilles starters logged heavy minutes just two days ago and will likely fade in the second half.

Dukes second unit is contributing over 20 points per game and provides a huge spark.

The Blue Devils have covered the spread in four of their last five home games.

Louisville is just 2-7 against the spread in their last nine road trips.

The atmosphere at Cameron will be too much for this Louisville squad to handle under pressure.

Duke should use a big run early in the second half to put this game out of reach.

Trust the more talented team with the better coaching staff to get the job done.

Bet Duke -6.5.

5* NO BRAINER on Blazers +9

The Blazers are getting too many points in a spot where the Celtics are far from full strength.

Jayson Tatum missed Saturday night's game against the Bulls and his status for this Monday matchup is very shaky. Even if he suits up, he likely won't be 100%, and this Boston offense looks completely different without its primary engine.

Portland comes into Boston with a massive rest advantage that the oddsmakers aren't weighing enough. The Blazers haven't touched the court since Friday, giving them two full days of recovery while the Celtics are playing their second game in three nights.

Recent history shows that Portland knows exactly how to handle this matchup. They already beat the Celtics 114-108 back in late December and they won't be intimidated by the environment at TD Garden.

The Blazers have been one of the more reliable bets in the league this season with a 26-20 record against the spread. They have the scoring depth to keep pace with a Boston team that has struggled to cover lately, going just 4-6 ATS over their last 10 contests.

Boston has been particularly mediocre for bettors at home this season, posting a 10-10 ATS record in their own building. The Celtics might find a way to win this game, but 9.5 points is a massive cushion for a rested underdog that already has a win over them this season.

Expect a close game that comes down to the final possessions.

I like the Blazers +9.5

3* HEAVY HITTER on Loyola-Chicago +3

The public is going to be all over St. Joe's in this spot after their big win over Dayton on Saturday. That is exactly why we are looking the other direction with the home dog.

St. Joe's is a completely different team when they leave Philadelphia. The Hawks are a dominant 11-2 at home but have been a disaster on the road with a 1-6 record this season.

This is a massive letdown spot for the Hawks. Teams often struggle to find that same intensity in a road gym right after a emotional win over a top-tier conference opponent.

Loyola-Chicago has struggled through a seven-game losing streak but they are due for a bounce-back at the Gentile Arena. Despite the recent slump, the Ramblers have historically won 11 of their last 13 home night games against Atlantic 10 competition.

The matchup in the paint will be a defensive battle. St. Joe's has a premier rim protector in Justice Ajogbor, but Loyola counters with Miles Rubin who is one of the top shot-blockers in the country.

Loyola has dealt with a banged-up backcourt with Justin Moore and Kayde Dotson missing time recently. However, the Ramblers have enough depth with Nic Anderson and Deywilk Tavarez to keep this game within a possession.

The line is telling the story here. If St. Joe's were as good as their recent win suggests, they should be favored by more than 3.5 against a five-win team.

The oddsmakers are begging you to take the favorite, but the Hawks' road shooting and turnover issues make them a risky play. Trust the home-court urgency for a Loyola team desperate to snap their skid.

Bet Loyola-Chicago +3.5.

5* NO BRAINER of the Month on Arizona State +8

Arizona State is getting too many points in this spot after proving they can compete with the upper tier of the Big 12.
The Sun Devils are fresh off a dominant 14-point win over Cincinnati and have shown they can handle hostile environments.

Arizona State has been a bankable underdog all season with a 7-4 record against the spread in that role.
The main reason for this late-season surge is the play of guard Moe Odum.

Odum is the engine of this offense and is coming off a massive 33-point masterpiece where he dominated every facet of the game.
He gives the Sun Devils a legitimate closer who can create his own shot when the shot clock winds down.

UCF has a glossy 15-4 record but they have been a major disappointment for bettors when asked to lay wood.
The Knights are just 4-6 against the spread as favorites this season and frequently let teams hang around late.

Arizona State is thin in the rotation with Marcus Adams Jr. and Adante Holiman still sidelined with injuries.
Even with a short bench, the Sun Devils have played with a high level of defensive intensity that keeps them in every contest.

UCF relies on second-chance points and transition buckets to fuel their offense.
Arizona State matches up well here because they have the length and speed to disrupt passing lanes and limit easy looks.

The Knights are coming off a high-scoring road win at Colorado and are in a prime letdown spot returning home.
Asking them to cover nearly double digits against a team with the guard play of ASU is a tall order.

Expect the Sun Devils to dictate the tempo and force UCF into a half-court game where the Knights often struggle to execute.
This should be a two-possession game right down to the final buzzer.

Bet Arizona State +8.5.

5* NO BRAINER on East -104

The East enters this matchup with a big physical edge along the offensive line that will be the main factor tonight.
Because the Shrine Bowl rules ban defensive stunts and blitzes, this game becomes a pure one-on-one battle in the trenches.
That is a massive advantage for an East squad that features a much heavier and more experienced interior group.
Without the ability to use creative pressure, the West defensive front will struggle to generate a steady pass rush against these massive blockers.

The West offensive line looked out of sync throughout the practice week in Frisco.
They had major issues with footwork and protection hand-offs which is a recipe for disaster in a live-game environment.
Even with limited defensive schemes, the East's defensive line has the raw power to collapse the pocket and force the West quarterbacks into quick decisions.
All-star games usually favor the defense early, but these specific rules give a slight edge to a team that can run the ball effectively.

The East offensive staff is running a simple, pro-style rushing attack that does not require complex timing.
This limits the risk of turnovers and keeps the West's playmakers off the field.
The West is trying to use a more complex passing game that just isn't ready for game speed after only four days of practice.
Expect the East to win the battle for time of possession and stay ahead of the chains on early downs.

When you can control the line of scrimmage in a game where defenses can't blitz, you control the final score.
The East is the more disciplined unit and their size will wear down the West by the second half.
This moneyline price is essentially a pick'em, and the value is on the more physical roster.

I like the East ML (-104).

3* HEAVY HITTER on Suns -8

The Brooklyn Nets are walking into a buzzsaw tonight in the desert.

Their primary offensive engine, Cam Thomas, is officially sidelined with a left ankle injury.

Losing Thomas leaves a massive scoring void that this depleted Brooklyn roster simply cannot fill.

The Nets are currently in the middle of a brutal five-game Western road swing and the fatigue is already setting in.

They looked gassed in a double-digit loss to the Clippers on Sunday and now face a Phoenix team that already beat them on the road last week.

Phoenix won that previous matchup by nine points and they should have an even easier time on their home floor.

The Suns are playing elite basketball right now and sit ten games over .500 for the season.

While Devin Booker is nursing an ankle sprain, the Suns have plenty of firepower left in the chamber with Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks.

Phoenix has a massive edge in eFG% and should dominate the perimeter matchups from the opening tip.

Brooklyn is also missing key depth pieces like Nolan Traore and Noah Clowney due to illness and back issues.

That leaves the Nets with a bench rotation that is completely outclassed at the Mortgage Matchup Center.

The Nets have only managed 12 wins all season and are clearly a team looking toward the lottery.

Phoenix has been a covering machine lately, going 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite of eight or more.

The Suns defensive rating at home is top-ten in the league and they will suffocate a Thomas-less offense.

Without their lead guard to break down the defense, the Nets will struggle to find consistent looks in the half-court.

Expect the Suns to push the pace early and bury this tired Brooklyn squad before the fourth quarter even starts.

This line is far too short for a team missing its only legitimate scoring threat on a long road trip.

I like the Suns -8.5 (-105)