4* VEGAS INSIDER on Tarleton State +105

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3* HEAVY HITTER on Idaho +125

Idaho heads into Missoula with a clear offensive edge that the current line isn't respecting.
The Vandals boast a superior offensive rating compared to the Grizzlies and have a legitimate revenge motive after a narrow loss in their first meeting.

Both teams are coming off Thursday night losses, but Montanas defensive collapse against Eastern Washington is the bigger red flag.
Giving up 82 points on your home floor suggests the Grizzlies are struggling to find stops when teams push the pace.

Idaho does exactly that, ranking 26th in the nation in three-pointers made and averaging a crisp 80 points per contest.
The backcourt tandem of Kristian Gonzalez and Kolton Mitchell is as good as any in the Big Sky.

Gonzalez is a matchup nightmare scoring 18 points a night, while Mitchells ability to facilitate prevents the offense from getting stagnant.
Montana leans heavily on Money Williams to carry the load, but if Idahos Biko Johnson can limit him, the Griz dont have a reliable second option.

Idaho has already proven they can win on the road this season with five away victories under their belt.
They are the more efficient scoring unit and shoot the ball at a much higher clip from deep than Montana.

With both rosters reporting no major injuries for this Saturday showdown, this comes down to which team can dictate the style of play.
The Vandals move the ball better and protect the rock, ranking second in the conference in turnover rate.

I expect Idaho to speed up the Griz and capitalize on a defense that is reeling from their last outing.
The value is purely on the road dog in a matchup where they are the more explosive team.

I like the Idaho ML (+125)

3* HEAVY HITTER on Temple -3

Temple is the superior team in this matchup and this short number is a gift on the road. The Owls have found their rhythm in conference play while East Carolina is stuck in a tailspin.

Temples backcourt is the deciding factor here. They protect the basketball and rarely beat themselves with unforced turnovers.

East Carolina ranks near the bottom of the AAC in effective field goal percentage. They simply do not have the shooters to keep pace if Temple hits a few early shots.

The Pirates rely on offensive rebounding to generate points, but the Owls are disciplined on the glass. Temple limits second-chance opportunities and forces teams to beat them in the half-court.

Temple has been a road warrior lately, covering the spread in four of their last five games away from home. They are comfortable playing in hostile environments and don't rattle easily.

East Carolinas offense has completely stalled out. They have failed to crack the 65-point mark in three straight outings and look lost in their sets.

The Owls' perimeter defense is elite and will force the Pirates into contested jumpers late in the shot clock. Temple also holds a major advantage at the free-throw line, which is crucial in a game with a small spread.

The Owls shoot nearly 78% as a team from the stripe while ECU struggles to hit 70%. Those easy points will be the difference in the final four minutes.

East Carolina has been a disaster for bettors as a home underdog this season. They have failed to cover in five of their last six games when getting points on their own floor.

Expect Temple's depth and superior guard play to take over in the second half. The Owls are the more talented, more disciplined, and more reliable team in this spot.

I like the Temple -3 (-110).

3* HEAVY HITTER on CS-Northridge -9

CS-Northridge is a different beast when they play on their home floor. They play with a pace and intensity that most Big West teams simply cannot match for forty minutes.

That high-speed pressure is a nightmare for a UC Riverside team that prefers to grind out possessions. The Highlanders want to slow this game down, but Northridge forces you to run.

Riverside has struggled significantly with ball security in true road games this season. They are coughing it up on nearly 20% of their possessions when they travel.

CSUN is elite at turning those mistakes into easy transition buckets. You cannot give this Matadors offense free points and expect to keep it within single digits.

The shooting numbers also point toward a blowout in Northridge. The Matadors rank near the top of the conference in effective field goal percentage at home.

Riverside does not have the perimeter defenders to stop Northridge from getting to the rim. Once the Highlanders start rotating, the open threes will be there all night.

We also have a major rest advantage to consider here. CSUN has stayed local all week while Riverside is coming off a grueling road trip.

The Highlanders' legs usually go flat in the second half of these back-to-back road weekends. Expect a close game early followed by a massive Northridge run after halftime.

Northridge is 8-2 ATS in their last ten games as a home favorite. They know how to put teams away and they do not take their foot off the gas.

Riversides offense is too one-dimensional to mount a comeback once they fall behind. They lack the consistent three-point shooting to trade blows with a high-octane Matador squad.

I like the CS-Northridge -9.5 (-110).

3* HEAVY HITTER on Alabama +3

Alabama is catching too many points in a rivalry game that usually comes down to the final minute. Nate Oats has the Crimson Tide leading the nation in three-point attempts and ranking fourth in scoring at nearly 92 points per game.

Auburn is always tough at Neville Arena, but they are sweating the status of star forward Keyshawn Hall. Hall is questionable with a finger injury, and losing his 21 points per game would be a massive blow to the Tigers' offensive efficiency.

Alabama has its own health issues with guard Labaron Philon questionable due to a thigh bruise. However, the Tide just dropped 100 points on league-leading Texas A&M this past Wednesday, proving they can score with anyone even when shorthanded.

The 174.5 total suggests this will be a high-speed track meet from the opening tip. In a high-possession game, Alabamas volume-heavy three-point attack provides a huge ceiling that Auburn often struggles to contain.

The Tigers' defense is built on aggressive pressure, but Alabama ranks 28th nationally in turnover rate. If the Tide take care of the ball and exploit the transition looks Auburn gives up, they will keep this within the number or win it outright.

Alabama won in this building in dramatic fashion last year and covers at a high rate as a road underdog in the SEC. Getting 3.5 points in what should be a one-possession game in the final minute is the clear sharp play.

Bet Alabama +3.5 (-105).

3* HEAVY HITTER on Colorado -170

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3* HEAVY HITTER on South Alabama -145

South Alabama is in a great position to secure a home win against a Buffalo team that does not travel well. The Jaguars have been much more efficient on the offensive end when playing at the Mitchell Center this season.

Buffalo is making a long trip from Western New York down to the Gulf Coast for this matchup. That kind of travel schedule often leads to slow starts and tired legs in the second half of non-conference games.

South Alabama holds a significant edge when it comes to effective field goal percentage defense. They do an excellent job of forcing opponents into low-quality shots and limiting second-chance opportunities.

Buffalo struggles with ball security and turns the ball over at a high rate when playing on the road. The Jaguars thrive in transition and will turn those Buffalo mistakes into easy points.

The Bulls rely far too much on the three-point shot to stay competitive in games. South Alabama ranks near the top of the Sun Belt in perimeter defense and will run Buffalo off the three-point line.

The Jaguars are the more disciplined team and rarely beat themselves with unforced errors or silly fouls. Buffalo has lacked the bench depth this season to keep up with athletic teams for a full 40 minutes.

South Alabama is the more balanced squad on both ends of the court tonight. Expect the Jaguars to control the pace and pull away late as Buffalo's shooting legs start to fade.

I like the South Alabama ML (-145).

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Samford +105

Samford at plus money on their home floor is the biggest gift on the Saturday board.

The Bulldogs are coming off a massive 23-point blowout win against Western Carolina and finally look like the team that dominated this conference last year.

Coach Lennie Acuff has this group playing with high intensity and a deep rotation that most SoCon teams cannot match.

The Bulldogs are 7-3 at the Pete Hanna Center this season and shoot the ball significantly better in their own gym.

Mercer is coming off a win against VMI, but that doesn't carry much weight considering the Keydets are at the bottom of the standings.

The Bears rely way too heavily on their starters, specifically Baraka Okojie who played 38 minutes on Thursday night.

Asking Okojie to carry that load again on just one day of rest against a physical Samford defense is a recipe for a late-game collapse.

Mercer struggles to stop anybody on the perimeter and currently ranks 233rd in the nation in points allowed per game.

Samford guards Jadin Booth and Keaton Norris are elite shooters who will exploit those defensive gaps all night long.

The Bulldogs thrive on forcing turnovers and turning them into easy transition buckets before the defense can set up.

Expect the atmosphere in Birmingham to be electric and push the home side over the finish line in a high-possession game.

The market is putting too much respect on Mercers overall record and not enough on Samfords current form and home-court edge.

I like the Samford ML (+105)

3* HEAVY HITTER on Cornell +124

Cornell heads to Levien Gymnasium with a massive revenge motive.
The Big Red dropped a 104-99 shootout to the Lions in January and have spent the last week stewing on that loss.
History says that result was an outlier, as the Big Red had won nine of the previous 10 meetings in this series.
Expect a much more focused defensive effort today from a team that usually dominates this matchup.

Both squads are coming off a six-day rest period since their last games on January 31st.
This favors Cornells high-octane offense, which relies on fresh legs to push the pace.
The Big Red currently lead the Ivy League in tempo and transition scoring opportunities.
Columbia struggled with fatigue in their last outing, getting outscored by 12 in the second half against Princeton.

The scoring punch for Cornell is simply too much for the Lions to contain for 40 minutes.
Cooper Noard is in a zone right now, coming off a 28-point performance against Penn.
He is supported by Jake Fiegen, who dropped 23 of his own in that same contest.
Columbia has a top-tier scorer in Kenny Noland, but they lack the defensive depth to stop multiple perimeter threats.

Columbias home-court advantage has been non-existent lately.
They have lost 12 of their last 14 home games against Ivy League opponents.
The Lions have also struggled as small home favorites, failing to close out tight games in the second half.
Cornell has already proven they can win tough road games at Harvard and Brown earlier this season.

Take the better roster at a plus-money price in a prime bounce-back spot.
The Big Red have the shooting, the pace, and the historical edge to get their payback.
The market is giving too much credit to the earlier January meeting while ignoring the long-term trends.
Cornell is the sharper side to get the job done in New York City.

I like the Cornell ML (+124).

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Michigan State -105

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1* Free Pick on Miami-OH -140

The RedHawks are 23-0 for a reason. They lead the entire nation in scoring at 92.8 points per game.

This is the most efficient offense in the country right now. Miami-OH ranks third in the nation in offensive rating and shoots nearly 40% from behind the arc.

Marshall has a solid 11-2 record at home, but they haven't seen an attack this balanced. The Thundering Herd allow over 74 points per game and lack the perimeter defenders to keep up with Miamis ball movement.

The RedHawks are playing without starting guard Evan Ipsaro due to a torn ACL. However, Luke Skaljac has stepped up in a massive way, dropping 19 points in their latest road win at Buffalo.

Miami-OH has been battle-tested lately with four of their last five games coming down to the final possession. They know how to close games out on the road and wont be rattled by the atmosphere at the Cam Henderson Center.

Marshalls effective field goal percentage is nearly 10 points lower than Miamis. The RedHawks have the edge in every major shooting metric and take care of the ball with a low 10.5 turnover rate.

You are getting the 23rd-ranked team in the country at a very reasonable price because of the venue. The talent gap is too wide here for a Marshall team that has already dropped eight games this season.

Miami-OH has won the last two matchups in this series and their confidence is at an all-time high. Trust the undefeated squad to keep the streak alive against a middle-of-the-pack Sun Belt defense.

I like the Miami-OH ML (-140).

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5* NO BRAINER on Grand Canyon -162

Grand Canyon is the much better team on both ends of the floor right now.
The Antelopes are 15-7 and fighting for a top spot in the Mountain West while UNLV is completely reeling.

The Rebels have lost four games in a row and their defense is a total mess.
They rank near the bottom of the country in points allowed and overall defensive efficiency.

Grand Canyon brings a top-40 defense that will suffocate a frustrated and struggling UNLV squad.
The Lopes allow just 67 points per game and force opponents into tough, contested jumpers all night.

Jaden Henley returning to his old home at the Thomas & Mack Center gives GCU a massive motivational edge.
The former Rebel knows this floor well and will be the best athlete on the court today.

UNLV is likely to be without big man Tyrin Jones who is dealing with a shoulder injury.
Without him, the Rebels lose their best interior defender against a GCU team that excels at attacking the rim.

Grand Canyon is battle-tested on the road and has the veteran leadership to ignore the crowd.
They won't beat themselves with turnovers or poor shot selection against this vulnerable UNLV unit.

Expect Bryce Drew to have his team ready to exploit a Rebels defense that gives up way too many easy buckets.
The Antelopes have more ways to score and the discipline to pull away in the second half.

The moneyline price is far too cheap for a team that is clearly superior in every major metric.
UNLVs losing streak continues as they simply don't have the firepower to crack this GCU shell.

I like the Grand Canyon ML (-162)

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Thunder -3

The Oklahoma City Thunder are the class of the Western Conference and they rarely slip up at the Paycom Center.
They own a dominant 22-4 record on their home floor this season and have consistently covered the number as favorites.

The Houston Rockets arrive in Oklahoma City searching for answers after dropping back-to-back home games.
Head coach Ime Udoka was blunt after their latest loss, calling out his team's total lack of fight and aggression.

Houston is also severely shorthanded in the backcourt without veteran leader Fred VanVleet.
VanVleet is out for the season with a torn ACL and his absence has crippled the Rockets' offensive rhythm and perimeter defense.

Oklahoma City already proved they have the blueprint to dismantle this Houston squad earlier this year.
The Thunder cruised to a 111-91 victory when these teams met in mid-January.

We are getting a short number here because the Thunder have dealt with some minor bumps to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren recently.
Both stars missed the mid-week loss to San Antonio but are expected to return for this marquee Saturday matchup.

Even if OKC is slightly limited, their depth is lightyears ahead of a Houston team relying too heavily on Kevin Durant.
The Thunder rank near the top of the league in eFG% and defensive rating, which is a nightmare matchup for a frustrated Rockets group.

Houstons high turnover rate lately will be their undoing against a Thunder defense that thrives on transition points.
Expect Oklahoma City to clamp down early and use their superior pace to pull away in the second half.

I like the Thunder -3.5.

5* NO BRAINER on Bulls +6

The Denver Nuggets are a mess right now and this line is giving them way too much credit on the road. Denver has dropped three straight games and they are limping into the United Center with their best player on the injury report.

Nikola Jokic is officially questionable for Saturday with a left ankle sprain after a grueling double-overtime loss to the Knicks earlier this week. Jokic just returned from a month-long knee injury and it is clear he is not playing at 100 percent health.

Even if the big man suits up, the Nuggets are missing key starters like Aaron Gordon and valuable rotation pieces like Peyton Watson. Their depth is completely gone and their starters are playing heavy minutes to compensate for a thin bench.

The Bulls have already proven they can beat this team after taking down Denver 130-127 earlier this season. Chicago plays much better at home where they have posted a 15-11 record and they have a massive advantage on the glass.

The Bulls rank third in the league in defensive rebounding which will limit Denvers second-chance opportunities. Denvers offense has stalled lately, shooting just 45.6% from the field over their last ten games.

Chicago is dealing with some trade deadline roster turnover, but the core group is still producing at home. Matas Buzelis has stepped up his scoring recently and the Bulls are averaging 117 points per game at home.

Denver is just 14-13 against teams over .500 and they have struggled to cover numbers as road favorites lately. Six points is a massive cushion for a home underdog against a reeling opponent that cannot stay healthy.

Expect a tight game that comes down to the final possessions in Chicago.

I like the Bulls +6 (-110)