3* HEAVY HITTER on Portland State -175

Portland State is a different animal at the Viking Pavilion. They play with an intensity that visitors usually cannot handle.

Montana wants to slow this game down and grind it out. That will not happen against a Vikings team that pushes the pace on every single possession.

The Grizzlies are prone to giving up the ball under heavy pressure. Portland State currently ranks first in the Big Sky in forced turnover rate.

Those turnovers will lead to easy transition buckets for the home team. That is where the Vikings thrive and where Montana gets exposed.

Portland State is also winning the battle on the boards. They lead the conference in offensive rebounding percentage and second-chance points.

Giving this Vikings offense extra looks is a recipe for disaster. They are shooting a much higher eFG% at home this season compared to their road marks.

Montana has been inconsistent away from home all month. They have failed to cover the spread in five of their last seven road games.

The travel from Missoula to Portland is always a tough turnaround. The Grizzlies have historically struggled in this building, losing four of their last five trips.

Portland States bench depth is a massive advantage in this spot. They rotate ten players to keep the defensive pressure high for the full forty minutes.

Montanas starters are playing heavy minutes and will likely fade late in the second half. This price is too cheap for a team that is nearly unbeatable on their home floor.

I like the Portland State ML (-175)

1* Free Pick on Cal Poly +105

Cal Poly is the clear play here as a live dog against a Bakersfield team that has completely lost its way. The Roadrunners are currently mired in a four-game losing streak and have looked disjointed under interim leadership.

The biggest edge in this matchup is the massive gap in shooting efficiency from beyond the arc. Cal Poly is knocking down nearly 11 three-pointers per game, which is more than double what Bakersfield produces on a nightly basis.

The Roadrunners rank near the bottom of the Big West in three-point percentage, hitting at a dismal 29.5% clip. In a close game, you want the team that can create spacing and capitalize on open looks from the perimeter.

Bakersfield also struggles to generate easy offense, averaging just 72.5 points per contest. They rely heavily on Dailin Smith to carry the load, and if he isn't efficient, the entire offense stalls out.

Cal Poly has already shown they have the blueprint to beat this squad, winning the last two head-to-head meetings in 2025. They won both of those games by nine or more points, proving they can handle the physical style that Bakersfield tries to play.

The Mustangs are coming off a tough loss last Saturday, but theyve had four full days to regroup and prepare for this trip. Bakersfield is also coming off a blowout loss at Hawaii and has failed to cover the spread in several straight home contests.

Bakersfields defense is allowing over 78 points per game, and they don't have the offensive firepower to keep up if this becomes a high-possession game. The Mustangs have the backcourt advantage and the better overall shooting metrics to pull the minor upset.

Don't let the road record fool you; Cal Poly is the more dangerous team in this spot. Grab the plus money on the team with the superior floor spacers.

I like the Cal Poly ML (+105)

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3* HEAVY HITTER on The Citadel -2

VMI is a mess right now and heading into a hostile environment at McAlister Field House.
They have lost six games in a row and their road record is a pathetic 1-8 this season.

The Citadel already went into Lexington and smoked these guys by 14 points less than two weeks ago.
Getting the Bulldogs at home while only laying 2.5 points is a gift.

The Keydets are one of the worst shooting teams in the country, ranking 350th in field goal percentage.
They rely way too much on the three-pointer but only hit 31% of their attempts away from home.

The Citadel's defense is disciplined enough to run them off the line and force contested shots in the paint.
The Bulldogs are also playing with high confidence after a 19-point comeback win against Furman.

VMI is likely shorthanded tonight with Rickey Bradley Jr. listed as questionable with an undisclosed injury.
He is a key piece of their rotation and without him, their already struggling offense loses its primary spark.

The Keydets simply don't have the size or the defensive stops to keep this close on the road.
They rank near the bottom of the country in total rebounding and give up way too many second-chance points.

VMI gives up nearly 80 points per game and their transition defense is basically non-existent.
The Bulldogs have the rest advantage and have historically performed well in this military rivalry when playing in Charleston.

Expect The Citadel to control the glass and the tempo from the opening tip.
The value is clearly on the home side against a VMI team that hasn't covered a spread in five straight games.

Bet The Citadel -2.5 (-110).

4* VEGAS INSIDER on Western Carolina +11

Western Carolina heads into Freedom Hall tonight with a massive number on their side.

The public sees a 1-10 road team and wants to run the other way.

I see a rivalry matchup where one team has owned the head-to-head series for years.

Western Carolina has won eight of the last ten meetings against East Tennessee State.

That includes a 72-68 win just two weeks ago on January 14th.

The Catamounts were 7.5-point underdogs in that game and won outright.

Now we are getting 11 points because the venue shifted to Johnson City.

ETSU is admittedly a different beast at home with an 11-1 record at Freedom Hall.

They just dismantled The Citadel by 29 points and are shooting nearly 50% from the floor.

But the Catamounts have found a recipe that works against the Buccaneers' defense.

Western Carolina is coming off its own 30-point blowout win over VMI on Saturday.

Marcus Kell is the engine for this offense and he is coming off an efficient 18-point performance.

WCU is also one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the SoCon, averaging over 12 per game.

Those second-chance points are crucial when you are trying to keep a game within two possessions.

The Buccaneers are 15-6 and sitting at the top of the conference, but they rarely blow out WCU.

The Catamounts are 6-4 against the spread in the last ten meetings between these two schools.

Eleven points is too much respect for a favorite that has struggled to put this specific opponent away.

Expect a high-energy game that stays much tighter than the oddsmakers suggest.

I like the Western Carolina +11.

5* NO BRAINER on Tennessee State -4

Tennessee State is the sharp side in this OVC clash.
The Tigers have been a dominant force at the Gentry Center with a 7-1 record on their home floor this season.

Little Rock has been a disaster for bettors when traveling.
The Trojans are just 4-9 on the road and have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six away games.

Tennessee State already proved they are the better team by going into Little Rock and taking a five-point win earlier this month.
Returning home for the rematch gives the Tigers a massive psychological and statistical edge.

The injury report is working heavily against the Trojans tonight.
The loss of K.K. Robinson for the season has gutted their backcourt depth and scoring options.

Tennessee State possesses one of the most explosive offenses in the conference.
They average over 81 points per game while the Trojans have struggled to crack the 72-point mark.

Travis Harper II is the best player on the floor and is coming off a dominant 30-point performance.
He should have no problem finding his rhythm against a thin Little Rock defense that lacks a primary stopper.

The Tigers also hold a significant advantage on the glass.
They are one of the best rebounding teams in the league and will limit Little Rock to one shot per possession.

Little Rocks turnover problems will be their downfall in a hostile environment.
They cough up the ball over 13 times per game and the Tigers are elite at turning those mistakes into transition points.

Tennessee State has covered four straight games when favored at home.
This line is too short for a team with this much of a mismatch in terms of both health and home-court advantage.

I like the Tennessee State -4.5.

3* HEAVY HITTER on Heat +1

Miami is the clear side to back in this Eastern Conference matchup.
The Heat excel in these short underdog roles where the market underestimates their defensive grit and preparation.

Erik Spoelstra has his unit playing elite basketball on the defensive end right now.
Miami ranks in the top five for defensive efficiency and points allowed over their last ten games.

The Bulls rely heavily on scoring in transition to keep their offense moving.
Miami is one of the best teams in the league at getting back and taking away fast-break opportunities.

Chicago consistently struggles when forced to execute in a slow, half-court setting.
They do not have the disciplined playmakers required to break down Miami's complex defensive rotations and zone looks.

The Heat are also dominating the glass and limiting extra possessions for their opponents.
They rank near the top of the league in defensive rebounding percentage throughout the month of January.

Chicago gives up far too many second-chance points when facing physical frontcourts.
This allows Miami to control the tempo and keep the Chicago crowd out of the game for long stretches.

The Bulls have been a terrible investment for bettors at home throughout this season.
They are just 3-9 against the spread in their last 12 games played at the United Center.

Miami has a massive advantage in late-game execution and veteran coaching.
The Heat have more reliable options and better ball security when the game is on the line in the final minutes.

Chicago's rotation is currently stretched thin due to a cluster of injuries in their backcourt.
Their primary starters are being forced into heavy minutes and often struggle to maintain intensity late in the fourth quarter.

Miami has covered the spread in four of their last five road games against the Bulls in Chicago.
The Heat are the more physical team and have the clear edge in what should be a grind-it-out game.

Expect Miami to force turnovers and turn this into a low-possession affair that favors their style.
They have the defensive personnel to stop Chicago's primary scoring threats on the perimeter.

I like the Heat +1.5 (-105).

5* NO BRAINER on Suns +5

The market is overreacting to the news that Devin Booker is sidelined with a right ankle sprain. Taking the best team in the Eastern Conference and making them a 5-point road favorite in the desert is asking for a lot.

Phoenix has been a cover machine all season with a 30-15-2 record against the spread. They know how to compete and win games even when their stars are in street clothes.

Detroit is coming off a massive emotional win in Denver just two nights ago. Young teams often struggle to maintain that high level of intensity on the back end of a Western road trip.

The Suns still have plenty of grit with Dillon Brooks and Grayson Allen leading the defensive effort. Bench spark plug Collin Gillespie has been on fire lately and provides the offensive floor spacing this team needs to stay competitive.

Detroit already ranks in the bottom half of the league in turnover percentage. The Suns thrive on turning mistakes into transition points and rank top-ten in points off turnovers at home.

The Pistons rely heavily on Cade Cunningham but he is still nursing a wrist injury that has clearly affected his shooting efficiency. If Phoenix can pressure him into a few early mistakes, this game stays within a single possession the whole way.

Phoenix is 15-6 at home this season and they rarely get blown out in their own building. This is a classic "buy low" spot on a home underdog that the public is ready to give up on.

Trust the veteran depth of the Suns to keep this close against a Detroit team that might be feeling a little too good about themselves. The value is entirely on the home side with the points.

Bet Suns +5 (-115).

3* HEAVY HITTER on Wyndham Clark -105

Wyndham Clark is sitting at a bargain price in this opening-round matchup. Getting a major champion at nearly even money against a less experienced opponent is a clear edge.

This tournament is being played at Torrey Pines, which is one of the most demanding tests on the PGA Tour. The South Course rewards pure power and elite long-iron play.

Clark excels in these specific conditions. His strokes gained off-the-tee numbers remain near the top of the category, which is vital for navigating these long par 4s.

Jake Knapp has plenty of distance, but his consistency isn't on the same level as Clark's. Knapp tends to struggle when his driving accuracy dips on these narrow, penal fairways.

Clark also holds a significant advantage in strokes gained approach. He is far more precise with his proximity to the hole from 175 yards and out.

That specific yardage is where this match will be won or lost. Most of the second shots this week will come from that deep range into firm greens.

Clark is also a world-class scrambler when he does happen to miss a green. He has the strength to gouge the ball out of the thick coastal rough and save par.

Knapps short game can be a liability when the pressure ramps up. He doesn't have the same level of touch around the greens when the conditions get difficult.

Clark has much more experience in these marquee pairings. He won't be rattled by a slow start or a couple of early bogeys on a tough layout.

The market is giving way too much credit to Knapps recent flashes of brilliance. Clark is the more polished professional with both a higher floor and a higher ceiling.

Take the proven winner over the high-variance youngster. Clarks ball-striking and major-winning pedigree will be the difference-maker in this spot.

I like the Wyndham Clark ML (-105).

5* NO BRAINER on Mackenzie Hughes +100

Mackenzie Hughes is the much more reliable option in this head-to-head matchup.
He brings a world-class short game that allows him to grind out scores on tough tracks.

Hughes consistently ranks as one of the best putters on the PGA Tour.
His ability to save par from the thick rough gives him a high floor that Valimaki lacks.

Sami Valimaki has plenty of raw power but is far too volatile for this price.
He tends to spray the ball off the tee, and this course penalizes errant drives heavily.

Valimaki struggles with bogey avoidance when he isn't hitting fairways.
Hughes is a grinder who stays patient and lets his opponents make the mistakes.

The Canadian has a proven track record during the West Coast swing.
He thrives on these specific green complexes where local knowledge and touch matter most.

Valimaki is still searching for consistency in these high-pressure tournament rounds.
The statistical edge in Strokes Gained: Around the Green is heavily in favor of Hughes.

Even money is a gift for the more polished and experienced player.
I expect Hughes to play a clean round while Valimaki finds too much trouble.

I like the Mackenzie Hughes ML (+100)

5* NO BRAINER of the Week on IU Indianapolis/Youngstown State: under 157

The biggest edge in this matchup comes down to a massive void in the IU Indianapolis lineup that the oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted for.

Kyler D'Augustino is the leading scorer for the Jaguars and the engine of their entire offensive system, but he is officially out for this contest.

We saw exactly what this team looks like without him on Wednesday night against Robert Morris.

The Jaguars managed just 58 points in that loss and deliberately slowed their tempo to a crawl because they simply don't have the playmakers to run-and-gun right now.

IU Indianapolis shot just 33 percent from the floor in their first meeting with Youngstown State earlier this season.

That game finished with a total of only 133 points, which is a far cry from the 157 we are seeing on the board today.

Youngstown State isn't exactly lighting up the scoreboard lately either.

The Penguins are coming off a 65-64 loss to Milwaukee and have struggled with shooting consistency throughout their recent 1-8 stretch in Horizon League play.

They rely heavily on the three-point shot, and when those looks aren't falling, their offensive rating plummetts.

The Jaguars' defense actually matches up well here because they focus on defending the perimeter and forcing teams into contested mid-range jumpers.

With both teams coming off a short week, I expect some heavy legs and plenty of missed shots in the second half.

The books are hanging this high number based on season-long averages that don't reflect the current reality of these rosters.

Without D'Augustino on the floor, the Jaguars simply do not have the firepower to help push this game over a total in the high 150s.

Expect a low-possession game where every bucket is a struggle.

I like the Under 157 (-110)

5* NO BRAINER on Raptors +100

Toronto owns the best road record in the Eastern Conference and they are catching the Magic in a vulnerable spot. The Raptors are 16-9 away from home this season and have been a nightmare for hosts to handle.

Toronto is coming off a frustrating loss to the Knicks where they fell apart in the second half. This is a massive bounce-back spot for a veteran group that rarely stays down for long.

Orlando is dealing with a major blow to their lineup with Franz Wagner sidelined due to an ankle injury. Wagner is their primary secondary playmaker and without him, the offense becomes far too predictable around Paolo Banchero.

The Magic have been a bad investment at the Kia Center lately. They are just 10-13 against the spread at home this season and struggle when they can't dictate the pace.

Toronto has the offensive efficiency edge here as they shoot 47.1% from the floor. Orlandos defense has been sliding and they are now allowing opponents to shoot over 48% on average.

Even with Jakob Poeltl out of the lineup, the Raptors have the superior wing depth. Brandon Ingram and Scottie Barnes are a matchup nightmare for a Magic team missing its best perimeter defender in Wagner.

The Raptors already beat the Magic earlier this season in a game where Ingram and Barnes combined for 30 points. Expect them to exploit the same gaps in the Orlando interior defense tonight.

Torontos ability to protect the ball and limit turnovers will be the difference in a close game. The Magic don't have the offensive firepower to keep up if this becomes a high-possession affair.

I like the Raptors ML (+100)