*3 Star Play Over* Northern Kentucky is pushing the pace a bit more this year, averaging just 16.3 seconds per possession on offense. The Norse are averaging 78.8 points per game this year. Now, they are playing against the team ranked dead last nationally in effective field goal percentage defense.

Bellarmine has seen 7 of their 9 games go over this total.

Last year's meeting between these two was 86-70.

Take the over.

*Free Play Under* UNC Wilmington has been very good at slowing the pace down this season. The Seahawks are 354th in average possession (out of 365 teams). They are up against a Valparaiso team that has slowed things down a lot this season too. Valpo is 283rd in average possession length.

Valpo is 331st in effective field goal percentage offense. They are 43rd in effective field goal percentage defense though.

The pace here should stay slow and I like it to stay tight and low scoring. Take the under.

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*3 Star Play Under* The Wright State Raiders are playing quite a bit differently this year. Wright State is 254th in average possession length. They are slowing the game down. Wright State is 126th in defensive efficiency this year after struggling badly on defense the last couple years. Wright State has played some very good offenses already this year as well.

Marshall is 81st overall in tempo. The Thundering Herd have faced a much tougher slate of offenses than defenses though, and I believe they are slightly better on defense than offense.

These two are 286th and 294th in the country in FTA/FGA.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* The Northern Arizona Lumberjacks rank 315th nationally in shot selection. They are 330th in FTA/FGA and 339th in offensive rebounding percentage. This is a team that takes a lot of bad shots and rarely gets second chances.

San Diego isn't playing as fast as they did last season. They are 209th in average possession length. They have been hurt by teams who are good on the offensive glass and get to the line a lot, but N Arizona isn't likely to be the team that can take advantage of that weakness.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bearcats are 9th nationally in defensive efficiency. Wes Miller's team is 5th in defensive rebounding percentage. The Bearcats are much better on defense than offense. Offensively, they are 223rd in overall offensive efficiency. They turn the ball over a lot, and they don't have very many consistent shooters.

Georgia plays extremely fast and that is why this total is so high. The Bulldogs are still pretty good on defense though. They haven't a defense in the top 40 this year either, and now they are facing number 9.

This is a neutral arena (State Farm Arena) where the under is 16-9 in the last 25 games played here.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* The Ohio State Buckeyes take on the West Virginia Mountaineers at Rocket Arena in Cleveland on Saturday night. A fun neutral site contest where there will be quite a few fans from both teams.

Ohio State has played a lot of teams who like to run. The Buckeyes have tended to play to the pace of their opponent under Jake Diebler the last couple years.

West Virginia is 353rd out of 365 in tempo. The Mountaineers will do their very best to stall this game out. The Mountaineers are elite on the defensive glass, and they do not foul much.

The under is 30-19 in the last 49 games in college hoops at Rocket Arena.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Over* The South Dakota Coyotes play at an extremely quick pace, and they excel at getting to the free throw line. Prairie View A&M fouls about as much as any team in the country. There should be loads of trips to the free throw line here.

Both teams are very fast paced, and neither team is any good on defense. A lot of offensive rebounds for both sides here too.

Take the over.

*4 Star Play Under* These two teams are 344th and 354th out of 365 teams in the country in tempo. They play very similarly, and both are clearly better on defense than offense. These two teams are 318th and 343rd in effective field goal percentage offense. The defenses should have the upper hand in this one.

This is the type of game that could easily end with the winner only getting into the low 60's.

Both teams are outside the top 300 in getting to the free throw line.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* The Boise State Broncos and St. Mary's Gaels have met on a neutral floor in Idaho Falls the last two seasons. They are back at Mountain America Center for this Sunday evening matchup.

The last two seasons these games were 63-60 and then 67-65 in OT (59-59 at regulation end last season). These two games were safely under the total.

St. Mary's is a good offense, but they have only faced one team ranked in the top 68 in KenPom's defensive efficiency rankings. Boise State is 22nd in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are also first in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. That's important because St. Mary's is excellent on the offensive boards.

Boise State is relying on a lot of free throws on offense, and St. Mary's is elite at defending without fouling.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Chiefs absolutely have to have this one. Kansas City has been great on defense at home this season. They are 8th in the NFL in yards per play allowed at home. The under is 6-1 in their 7 home games.

The LA Chargers are 4th in the NFL in yards per play allowed on the road. This Chargers offense is very banged up right now. The offensive line in front of Herbert is badly banged up and Herbert himself is banged up as well. The Chiefs should be able to slow them down. On the other side though, the Chargers defense is playing great football right now.

This projects as a hard fought game where the defenses have the upper hand. The extremely low temperatures with a wind chill of 10 degrees or lower at times could be a benefit too.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play on Bills ML* The Buffalo Bills are playing good football right now. Josh Allen and the Bills have a good chance to go to New England and get revenge against the Patriots after New England went to Buffalo and upset them with a game winning field goal. Buffalo was -2 in TO margin in that game.

The Patriots are on a great winning streak, and they are a quality team. However, I do think they have benefited from playing a weak schedule and being fortunate in key situations.

The Patriots rank third in the NFL in Team Rankings Luck Factor. The Bills are right in the middle of the NFL at 16th.

Josh Allen is the best player on the field here, and the offense around him is healthier than it was in the first meeting.

The Bills still badly want to win this division, and this is a must win for them if they want that to happen. I like the spot.

Take Buffalo.