*3 Star Play on Falcons* The Atlanta Falcons have played terribly the last couple weeks. There is no denying that this team was thumped last week, but they have been really banged up as well. Atlanta enters this game much more healthy. This is still a Falcons team that outplayed the Bucs in week one. They beat the Bills a few weeks ago. They went on the road and thumped the Vikings too.

There are a lot of long term angles that have been very successful in the NFL that back teams coming off terrible recent performances where they lost ATS by a huge point margin. Atlanta fits that in this spot.

New England has played well of late, but they dominated a Cleveland team with Dillon Gabriel at quarterback and the Tennessee Titans. The Patriots lost at home this year to both the Raiders and the Steelers. I think the market is a little too high on New England right now.

With Penix, London, and Pitts back in the lineup the Falcons should look different here.

Take Atlanta.

*3 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Packers are second in the NFL in yards per play allowed. I still believe this Packers defense is a very solid one. They have played a tough schedule of opposing offenses thus far. This is a step down for them.

Carolina is bottom five in the NFL in total offense and nearly all the advanced metrics. The Panthers have a cluster injury issue on the offensive line too. Bryce Young will be back here, but he is less than 100% and playing behind a banged up offensive line. This is a dangerous spot for the Carolina offense.

Carolina's defense has been top 12 in the NFL in the last three games. While I don't think their defense is good overall, they don't give up explosives nearly as much as the average team.

The wind in this game could change the game some too. Sustained winds will grow to 18 mph or so during the game with gusts hitting 30 mph.

Take the under.

*4 Star Play Over* The Indianapolis Colts have been the top offense in the NFL to this point in the season. Many people keep predicting this offense will slow down, but it hasn't happened. The offensive line is elite. The running game is excellent. Jones has been very good in the passing game too. The overall balance they have on offense along with the forward thinking play calling is tough to stop. The Colts are scoring 33.8 points per game so far this season.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are averaging 25 points per game. The Steelers offense hasn't been the problem in their recent losses. Aaron Rodgers and the passing attack have been above average. While the Colts offense is elite, the defense has been mediocre. The secondary is especially beatable, and they are just 21st at PFF in coverage grade.

The Steelers no longer have that top notch defense we remember them for in recent seasons. Pittsburgh is in the bottom half of the NFL in run defense and coverage grade at PFF. They are allowing 25 points per game.

Three Steelers games have already reached 60 total points this year. The Colts have had five games with 52 points or more this season.

Take the over here.

*4 Star Play Over* Tarleton has much better talent now with Dior Johnson and Freddie Hicks. They should be much better offensively than they were a year ago. Tarleton is still going to be a mess on defense.

SMU will be pushing the pace as always under Any Enfield. SMU beat Tarleton 96-62 in a game played to 74 possessions starting last year. I see no reason why the total should be this much lower this time around.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play on South Dakota State* The Merrimack Warriors have been a solid mid major team, but they lost more than 90% of their scoring from last year. Bud Clark was their go to guy and playmaker and he is a huge loss.

Merrimack best matches up against teams who can't shoot the ball well because of Merrimack's matchup zone, but South Dakota State has a lot of outside shooting options.

South Dakota State has a lot more production back, and they are playing this game just a few minutes from home at a semi home game in Sioux Falls.

Take South Dakota State.

*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon State Beavers have consistently slowed the tempo down under Coach Wayne Tinkle. Oregon State might play a little faster this year, but I do think they'll still be a below average paced team.

North Dakota State has ranked in the bottom 40 in average possession length (slow paced) in each of the last two seasons. The Bison lost their sharpshooters from a year ago, and they will look a whole lot different this season. They led the nation in 3 point shooting percentage last year, but Coach Richman said the team added more defensive help this year and this team is likely to struggle to score as efficiently.

Neither of these teams are typically teams who foul a lot, and they are both good on the defensive glass.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Over* The Ohio Bobcats were 13th in the nation in tempo last year. Ohio loves to push the pace, and their defense has been below average in recent seasons. They are unlikely to be able to keep a good Arkansas State team from getting a lot of points in transition.

Arkansas State has a new head coach in Ryan Pannone and he was the offensive guy at Alabama under Nate Oats. Alabama was first in the nation in tempo last year. The Crimson Tide have built a reputation of pushing the pace to the extreme, and Pannone wants to establish the same thing here. They are looking for 5 out motion and uptempo offense at all times.

Ohio takes good care of the basketball and has multiple outside shooters. Both teams should put up quite a few points here.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Over* The IU Indy Jaguars have a new coach who is all about pressing full court and pushing the pace. His team in Division II last year routinely scored 100 points or more.

Ohio State put up 103 points in an exhibition win against Ohio and they had a high scoring scrimmage against Tennessee before that. The Buckeyes want to play faster this year, and they have the perfect opponent for that.

I think the Buckeyes put up a big number here, and IU Indy based on tempo alone should put up enough.

Take the over.