*4 Star Play on LA Dodgers -1.5* Tyler Pill makes a start here against the red hot Dodgers bats. I don't think it will go well for him. Just last year, Pill was in Double A and wasn't even considered much of a prospect. He struck out only 4.22 batters per nine innings at Triple A this season. He had a 4.13 FIP and a 5.09 xFIP at Triple A.

The Dodgers are hottest lineup in the National League, and they have been the best lineup against right handed pitching in the NL so far this season. The Dodgers have scored 40 runs in their last 4 games. I don't think a guy with limited stuff like Pill is a good fit to slow them down. The Mets bullpen is overworked of late, and they aren't very good anyways.

The Mets aren't good against lefties, and while Rich Hill has been mediocre this year I think he'll be decent enough here. The Dodgers bullpen is excellent, and that's a major advantage for them here.

Take the LA Dodgers -1.5.

*3 Star Play Over* Tyson Ross and Joe Biagini are the starters in this one Wednesday night in Texas.

Ross is a guy who walks a ton of batters, and that usually comes back to bite you in a park like this, especially against a good offense. Ross walked 5.30 batters per nine innings in four Triple A starts this year. He had a 7.71 ERA and 6.71 FIP in the minors. He pitched well in his first big league start, but I think he'll have a tough time against this deep Blue Jays lineup. He doesn't pitch deep in the game and the Rangers bullpen isn't good at all.

Biagini has had declining velocity in his last few starts, and he's been prone to blowups on occasion. Pitching in Texas in 90 degree heat and against a lineup that is very good against right handed pitching is a tough matchup for him.

Sam Holbrook is the umpire here, and over umpires don't come much better than Holbrook. The over has hit 55.6% of the time in his games behind home plate in his career.

Take the over.

*4 Star MLB Wednesday's BEST Bet* The Seattle Mariners host the Detroit Tigers and Justin Verlander on Wednesday night.

Verlander has been really bad this year. His 4.50 ERA doesn't even tell the whole picture of how bad he has been. His hard contact percentage is 10% higher than last year and is the highest of his career. Batters are barreling up on him very often. His SIERA is 5.02. Verlander has had issues with control in recent starts as well.

The Mariners start James Paxton. Paxton was amazing early in the season, but he has been shaky of late. If he was in better form, this would have been a 5 star play, but I do still like it a good amount. Paxton goes back home to a pitcher-friendly park and faces a Tigers team without a key contributor in Victor Martinez.

The Tigers bullpen is one of the two or three worst in the majors. Seattle's bullpen is at least as good as the league average and some stats make them a little better than average.

The Mariners have a lot of value at this price.

Take Seattle.

*3 Star Play on Pirates ML* The Pirates start Trevor Williams here. He is a decent prospect who has pitched better in recent outings. Williams started out very poorly in the bigs, but improved control has made a big difference for him of late.

Junior Guerra starts for the Brewers here. He has had awful control of late. Guerra has a 2.84 ERA and a 6.06 FIP. He is in line for some serious regression. In his last five starts, he has at least 3 walks in each of them. He has walked four guys in each of his last two outings. That isn't a recipe for success in the long run.

The Brewers offense is still pretty good, but they do miss Ryan Braun. The Pirates are finally getting healthy and with Polanco contributing on offense now I do expect improved numbers from Pittsburgh moving forward.

Fading a pitcher favored who has major control problems is a strategy I've used successfully in the past. I'm taking the Pirates here plus the money.

Take Pittsburgh.

*3 Star Play Under* Montreal has an elite defense, and a really bad offense. Obviously, that is exactly what we want to see with an under. Montreal has been a noted slow starter in terms of scoring as well. The under is a whopping 20-3 in Montreal's last 23 games in the month of June.

In the last 8 matchups between these two teams, only one of them has gone over the posted total while in regulation.

A game played in June or July where the home team is favored by 5 to 12 points in the CFL- The under is an amazing 37-13 in the last 50 games that meet this criteria.

Take the under here.

*5 Star MLB Moneyline GAME of the MONTH* The Chicago Cubs have certainly been a disappointment this year. I still believe the Cubs will hit their stride, and I think they are finally starting to be underpriced.

This was a game I had circled for the last couple days. It was always going to be a play, but the price made this a five star top play. This is a terrific price on the Cubs against a pitcher like Jeff Locke.

Locke has been a subpar lefty his whole career, and though his numbers are a bit better so far this year, I consider him a good fade until he proves it for a length of time. Locke walked 4 Cubs in 4 and 2/3 innings earlier this year. He allowed 4 runs in that game.

Locke faces a Cubs lineup that has struggled against right handed pitching, but they have been very good against lefties. The Cubs are second in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. They are first in the majors in ISO against lefties. They walk more than any other team in the majors against lefties, and Locke has had command issues in his career.

Jake Arrieta hasn't been very good this year, but he has shown signs of turning the corner of late. He hasn't allowed more than 5 hits in any of his last six starts. His velocity is starting to come back up.

The Marlins are elite against lefties, but they are only mediocre against right handed pitching. Miami has a .318 OBP against right handed pitching and a .343 OBP against lefties.

Finally, in a large sample size, the Cubs have absolutely beaten up Jeff Locke in the past. In 142 plate appearances, the Cubs have a .453 weighted on base average and a .349 average.

This price is too cheap for a team with the upside of the Cubs against a pitcher like Jeff Locke.

Take the Chicago Cubs big.

*4 Star Play on Yankees -1.5* The New York Yankees start Luis Severino here. I don't think Severino has gotten enough credit for how well he has pitched this year. Severino has been consistent and tremendous.

Severino has a 2.99 ERA and a 3.14 xFIP. He ranks in the top 10 or 15 starting pitchers in many key categories including both of these. He is sporting an amazing 11.7% swinging strike percentage. Most hard throwers who miss bats allow a lot of hard contact, but only 28% of batted balls off Severino have been of the hard contact variety. Severino has allowed more than 2 runs in only four of his 13 starts this year.

The Angels rank dead last in weighted on base average against right handed pitching when Mike Trout is out of the lineup. This isn't a good offense.

Jesse Chavez starts here and he's giving up more hard contact than he ever has before in his career. Chavez has an ERA over 6 on the road, and he's prone to the long ball. The ball is carrying well at Yankee Stadium now, and I think Chavez has a real chance of getting lit up in this one.

Take New York -1.5.

*3 Star MLB Early Bird Special* The Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates battle on Thursday afternoon.

Chase Anderson has been really good of late for Milwaukee. Anderson is a streaky pitcher, and right now he is in the zone. Anderson has a 2.92 ERA and a 3.38 FIP. He has been getting a lot of pop ups of late, so hitters aren't squaring up on his pitches very often.

Anderson is at his best at home, and during the daytime. Anderson has a 2.03 ERA at home this year (3.61 in his career). He has a 3.36 career ERA in day games, and this year that number is 2.68. He's made nine starts this year under a retractable roof being closed (Miller Park's roof will likely be closed due to hot temperatures and rain chances here), and in those 9 games he has a 1.73 ERA.

Ivan Nova pitches to contact, but I love the fact that he virtually never walks anyone. That generally helps him limit damage.

Dan Bellino is the umpire here, and only one game he has called has gone over the total this year. In his career 55.5% of his games have stayed under.

It's a get away day game and some of the better hitters might sit this one out.

Take the under.