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Matt Fargo |
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| After two straight profitable nights, Matt gave some back last night so expect a big rebound on Thursday! College hoops is a FANTASTIC 23-16-1 L40 and his Enforcers are leading the charge, going a TREMENDOUS 12-6! |
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| SHORT STATS | ||||
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| Last 30 days | Units | ROI | Pct | WL |
| Overall Picks | +512.0 units | +3.5% | 53% | 70-61 |
| Top Play Picks | +391.0 units | +4.0% | 53% | 49-43 |
| ATS Picks | +372.0 units | +2.8% | 53% | 64-57 |
| Moneyline Picks | +140.0 units | +10.9% | 60% | 6-4 |
| Last 60 days | Units | ROI | Pct | WL |
| Moneyline Picks | +234.0 units | +6.0% | 56% | 18-14 |
| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NHL | Mar 06, 2014 Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Chicago Blackhawks |
Chicago Blackhawks -1½+168 at 5DIMES |
Won $168 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
| It has been a rough stretch for Chicago as it has gone 1-2 since the extended Olympic break and going back further, it is 4-8 over its last 12 games since late January. The Blackhawks are coming off a 4-2 home loss against Colorado on Tuesday and while they are just 1-2 in their last three home games, this is only their fourth home game since January 19th. While the moneyline price is steep, we are going with the puckline as we are adding a lot of value to the home team in what I am expecting to be a dominating bounceback performance. Columbus has won three straight games since a loss at New Jersey in its first game after the break but only one of those has been on the road where the blue Jackets are a below .500 team. They are just 2-4 in their last six games on the highway and they have had no luck here or against Chicago for that matter as they have lost 11 straight meetings in this series with seven of those coming by two goals or more. For the Blackhawks, Corey Crawford will start and he is 9-0-0 with a 1.53 GAA against the Blue Jackets during Chicago's stretch of dominance in the series. Some do not like laying a goal and a half so the moneyline play can be substituted at your discretion but it is pricey and it is important to note that of Chicago's last 17 wins, 15 have come by two goals or more. 10* (10) Chicago Blackhawks -1.5 Goals | ||
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NCAA-B | Mar 06, 2014 Iowa vs. Michigan State |
Michigan State -4½-106 at 5DIMES |
Won $100 |
| Play Type: Premium | ||
| While the big news is college hoops has been the slide of Syracuse which has lost four of five games including two bad home losses, the Michigan St. swoon is quietly under the radar. The Spartans have dropped six of their last 10 games including their last two games, a second loss to Michigan and an embarrassing home loss against Illinois which came into that game on a 3-10 stretch. Now it is time for the Spartans to buckle down and get something going prior to heading into the Big Ten Tournament. With the season finale taking place at Ohio St., this is now a massive game and with it being the final home game of the season, I am expecting a big effort. Guard Brandon Dawson returned against Illinois but he was shaky after missing nine games but we will see a better effort here and now the backcourt is again healthy which is huge as it is one of the best in the nation. Iowa is coming off a win over Purdue on Sunday which snapped a three-game losing streak and it brings in a 4-5 road record on Thursday. The Hawkeyes have been solid as underdogs but most of that was when getting more points than they are tonight and they have won only once in four tries as a road underdog. Additionally, Iowa is 1-6 against the RPI top 25. Michigan St. is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring 60 points or less and it has won 26 of the last 34 meetings against Iowa including 17 straight in the Breslin Center. Look for an inspired effort on Senior Night in East Lansing tonight. 9* (548) Michigan St. Spartans | ||
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NCAA-B | Mar 06, 2014 Weber State vs. Portland State |
Weber State -2½-106 at 5DIMES |
Lost $106.0 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
| The math is pretty simple for Weber St. It has clinched at least a share of the Big Sky Championship and will host the Big Sky Tournament next weekend in Ogden. With a win Thursday, the Wildcats will clinch the outright conference title. That is motivation enough but they are coming off a rare home loss against Northern Arizona last time out so they will be out to make up for that debacle and they are 6-1 in their last seven games following a loss while going 4-1 ATS in those games. Weber St. has yet to win a game as an underdog this season, going 0-5 but they are 4-2 straight up and against the number as a road favorite. Overall, Weber St. is 4-8 on the road this season but three of those losses came at BYU, Colorado St. and UCLA while two others came in overtime in conference games so in reality, that record is not as bad as it seems. Portland St. is 14-13 overall and 9-9 in Big Sky play. The Vikings are currently in a four-way tie for sixth in the conference standings so this is definitely a big weekend as only seven team make the Big Sky Tournament but they are catching the wrong team at the wrong time. Portland St. is coming off a 3-1 roadtrip which has kept it in contention for a spot and while it is 10-5 at home, it has dropped two straight and overall is 6-6 ATS at home. Weber St. rolled to a 17-point win in the first meeting as a 14.5-point favorite and now this line is 12 points less than that which is a huge overadjustment. Weber St. is 22-10 ATS in its last 32 games off a loss against a conference rival and it clinches outright tonight. 10* (575) Weber St. Wildcats | ||
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NBA | Mar 06, 2014 Los Angeles Clippers vs. Los Angeles Lakers |
Los Angeles Lakers +10½-105 at 5DIMES |
Lost $105.0 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
| Motivation plays a big role in the NBA as in an 82-game season, it is impossible to be highly motivated in every one of those games while on the other side, teams get up for some games more than others and that is where we extract some great situational plays. The Lakers are getting a big number at home against their city rival and while it is also the Clippers home floor, the fan support makes a difference. We played against the Lakers last time out and they were handed a home loss against New Orleans which snapped a two-game winning streak. Part of the reason in going against them was going against that streak and part of the reason was a lookahead to this game. These teams last met in January and the Clippers rolled to a 36-point win which was the largest win by them in this series ever. Don't think the Lakers have forgotten that. While top to bottom, the Clippers are far and away better than the Lakers, this is where the motivation factor comes into play. The Clippers have won and covered five straight games and that is also playing into this very high number. The Lakers are 5-2 ATS as a home underdog of six points or more and we played on them in a similar role three weeks ago on a Thursday night when they were getting the same amount of points against Oklahoma City and covered easily. The Lakers are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing 120 points or more including going 8-1 ATS this season. We have a great contrarian situation on our side as we play against favorites of 10 or more points after three or more consecutive wins, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team. This situation is 123-76 ATS (61.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (506) Los Angeles Lakers | ||
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NBA | Mar 06, 2014 Miami Heat vs. San Antonio Spurs |
Miami Heat +2½-110 at 5DIMES |
Lost $110.0 |
| Play Type: Top Premium | ||
| This is the second meeting this season following last year's epic NBA Finals and this also marks the second opportunity for the Spurs to extract some revenge as they were unable to get it done in Miami as they lost by 12 points. Many will be on San Antonio because of the revenge angle but I am not one of them. The Spurs have not played much at home over the last month but they have won their last four games here and while the 21-8 home record looks solid, it is littered with cupcake wins as 13 of those have come against teams likely not making the playoffs this season and overall they have struggled against the top teams. San Antonio has gone 9-11 against teams ranked within the top ten in power rankings and it is 0-9 ATS this season playing against teams with a winning percentage of .700 or better. And we mentioned revenge but the Spurs are just 2-14 ATS this season when trying to revenge a loss. Miami meanwhile is coming off a loss at Houston on Tuesday and while it may have been looking ahead to this game, that loss is our gain here. The Heat never led in that game and that will only make them hungrier here. Miami has been the best team in the NBA following a loss over the last two seasons as it is 30-7 in its 37 games following a defeat. While the ATS record is not as good, it does not matter here since the Heat are getting points and over those 37 follow up games, Miami was an underdog twice and won both of those games outright. Additionally, the Spurs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a double-digit win and 0-5 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. 10* (501) Miami Heat | ||
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SERVICE BIO |
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| Matt Fargo is becoming recognized as one of the best and most consistent handicappers in the world. He has been handicapping professionally since his college days and his hard work and dedication have paid off considerably. In his 14 years of handicapping, Fargo has had winning seasons 11 times and has not had only one losing season in the past 10 campaigns. He brings with him numerous high ranking finishes in all sports with 23 Top Tens in the past five years alone including four #1's. Matt has appeared on numerous radio shows over the last few years giving out sought after information, free plays and spot-on analysis that the bettor needs. He is commonly referred to as Mr. Analysis as his game day reports are considered to be some of the finest and most thorough available anywhere. If you want reasoning for a play, Matt gives it to you. Rating Scale Play Rating will be displayed in each title and range anywhere from 5* to 10* for Premium Plays and 3* for Free Plays. Enforcer this is the Signature Play for Matt and is usually backed with a 10* Rating unless otherwise noted. Supreme Annihilator this is typically a favorite or a pickem that Matt feels has the opportunity to destroy the line. Dark Horse Dandy this is an underdog that is being faded for the wrong reasons and usually has a chance to win a game outright. Star Attraction this is a game that can be seen on national television providing great watch and win opportunities. Total Dominator while rare, these are the best over/under releases and occur more in football and baseball than any other sports. |
