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Matt Fargo Sports Picks

You will find all of Matt Fargo's sports betting picks right here every day! Both his free sports picks and guaranteed sports picks will be posted here.

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  • Matt Fargo Matt Fargo
    Matt went a MASSIVE +$17,233 last year and is off to a FANTASTIC +$7,987 start TY! Playing Underdogs is all we do and we are on track to dust last season's MONSTER RAMPAGE! He continues the surge Friday (5 Winners)!
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    YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
    Matchup Selection W/L
    NBA  |  May 21, 2015
    Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors
    Golden State Warriors
    -10 -115 at Bovada
    Lost
    $115.0
    Play Type: Top Premium

    The under came in for Game One of this series and it was pretty fortunate for under bettors as a 113-point first half was followed up by a 103-point second half. We are not seeing a huge move going into Game Two and after neither teams shot lights out, I think we are going to see a shootout tonight. When you think Golden St., you think offense and while that is the case, the Warriors have been on a huge under run. They have stayed below the total in seven of their last eight games but a lot of that is due to the opposition and the pace involved. Golden St. is coming off two series against the third slowest and sixth slowest teams in the league in term of pace and in this series, they are facing the only team faster than them. Only six teams have averaged 170 or more shot attempts per game combined on offense and defense and these two teams are part of that group. Obviously the ball has to go in the hole for this to be high scoring but I expect much better shooting tonight than we saw on Tuesday. While the Warriors under trends have been dominating, the Rockets offset that as they are 5-1 to the over in their last six road games and 11-5 to the over after scoring 100 or more points last time out. 10* Over (505) Houston Rockets/(506) Golden St. Warriors

    Matchup Selection W/L
    MLB  |  May 21, 2015
    Cleveland Indians vs Chicago White Sox
    Chicago White Sox
    +118 at 5Dimes
    Lost
    $100.0
    Play Type: Top Premium

    The Indians cashed for us on Tuesday after we lost with them Monday in extra innings and they have cooled down the red hot White Sox with two straight wins. Now after being underdogs in the first three games of this series, they are favorites and I'm not sure why. Cleveland is a game under .500 on the road which certainly isn't horrible but it has won just one of its last five as a road favorite and despite the consecutive wins the last two days, the Indians are 3-13 in their last 16 games following a win. Chicago is four games over .500 at home and the White Sox are 5-0 in their last five games as an underdog of +110 to +150. John Danks gets the call for the White Sox and is once again getting little respect at home. He has a 3.99 ERA in 18 home starts including a 3.32 ERA this year in three starts, all being quality outings. Chicago has won all three of those and going back to last season, his last three home starts against Cleveland have been quality as well. Danny Salazar has been very average with only half of his starts being quality performances and he has been lucky with run support despite a 4.06 ERA including a 5.11 ERA under the lights. 10* (974) Chicago White Sox

    Matchup Selection W/L
    MLB  |  May 21, 2015
    Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles
    Seattle Mariners
    +108 at 5Dimes
    Lost
    $100.0
    Play Type: Top Premium

    We won with Seattle last night and we will be backing the Mariners this afternoon with the series on the line. They are not as big of an underdog as they were Wednesday but I think any sort of plus money is big here. Seattle is 7-4 in its last 11 games so while it is not meeting early expectations overall, it is playing better and is again in a good spot today. Baltimore is still under .500 for the season following yesterday's defeat and going back, the Orioles are 3-9 in their last 12 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. J.A. Happ has been an excellent acquisition for the Mariners as he has posted a 2.98 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in seven starts with five of those resulting as quality performances. He has had success against the Orioles as he has made seven starts against them, posting a 2.93 ERA. Chris Tillman has been just the opposite for the Orioles as he has put up only two quality outings while posting a dismal 6.34 ERA and 1.64 WHIP through eight starts. There is even more concern as he was pushed back a few days due to back stiffness, but he was cleared after getting through a game of catch Tuesday with no issues. Anything related to a back problem is a flag. 10* (963) Seattle Mariners

    PICKS IN PROGRESS
    Matchup Selection W/L
    NBA  |  May 22, 2015
    Cleveland Cavaliers vs Atlanta Hawks
    Atlanta Hawks
    -1 -105 at Bovada
    Play Type: Top Premium

    We lost with the Hawks in Game One but will come back with them here in what is a must win spot to stay in the series. Atlanta looked particularly good in the first half against the Cavaliers but a poor start to the second half put them behind by double-digits and they could not recover. The difference in that first game was simple. The overall shooting was very even but Cleveland was 10-26 from long range while the Hawks went just 4-23 from beyond the arc and that was the obvious difference. The majority came from J.R. Smith who was an unconscious 8-12 from three-point land from off the bench. Do not expect a repeat from him and we can expect a better showing from Atlanta as well. That was just the eighth home loss of the season for Atlanta compared to 40 wins and the Hawks have not lost consecutive home games all season, going a perfect 7-0 in their next home game after losing their previous home game. Additionally, Atlanta has covered its last four playoff games coming off a non-cover and while it has already lost home court advantage in this series, Atlanta knows it has to get the job done tonight. 10* (508) Atlanta Hawks

    Matchup Selection W/L
    MLB  |  May 22, 2015
    Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Indians
    Cincinnati Reds
    +145 at betonline
    Lost
    $100.0
    Play Type: Top Premium

    There is not much difference between the Reds and Indians this season, even when you look at the home/road splits, and there is a significant difference in starting pitching, with it actually favoring Cincinnati despite what this line may be telling us. The Indians took the final three games in Chicago to go 5-2 on their roadtrip but they are just 6-12 at Progressive Field this year. The Reds meanwhile has lost five straight which is certainly playing into this line but I expect Mike Leake to get the team back on track while he bounces back from his own nightmare. He allowed nine runs in five innings against the Giants after coming into that game with a 2.36 ERA through his first seven starts. We can chalk the last game up to an anomaly and he has been very steady with a 3.55 ERA over the last three seasons. Carlos Carrasco was supposed to be sleeper candidate after a strong 2014 but he has been all over the place with just two quality outings in eight starts and he does not deserve to be favored by this amount. 10* (925) Cincinnati Reds

    Matchup Selection W/L
    MLB  |  May 22, 2015
    Oakland A's vs Tampa Bay Rays
    Oakland A's
    +127 at betonline
    Play Type: Top Premium

    The A's completely redid their lineup this season and the changes have not been good as they have won just two times in their last 15 games. Still, they have had some bad luck along the way as they are just -14 in run differential no thanks to a 2-13 record in one run games. Wit the win in this series opener yesterday, Tampa Bay has taken over sole possession of first place in the American League East. Pitching has been the key but Oakland brings that to the table as well with Scott Kazmir. After starting the season with five straight quality outings, he has struggled in two of his last three games but his 2.84 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in his six nighttime starts gives the confidence of a rebound tonight. Chris Archer counters for Tampa Bay and after going four straight starts without allowing a run, he has a 4.84 ERA over his last four starts despite the last two being quality. Going back, the Rays are 3-8 in Archer's last 11 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. 10* (919) Oakland A's

    Matchup Selection W/L
    MLB  |  May 22, 2015
    Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays
    Toronto Blue Jays
    +139 at 5Dimes
    Lost
    $100.0
    Play Type: Top Premium

    Seattle and Toronto are two early season disappointments and both are going through recent struggles. The Mariners lost yesterday to Baltimore to fall t0 7-12 on the road while Toronto was able to snap a two-game skid and salvage a series split with the Angels. While the pitching matchup seems to heavily favor the Mariners, the disparity is not that big. Felix Hernandez is coming off his first loss of the season and this is not the team we would like to face to try and rebound against. He's gone 5-6 in 13 starts with a 4.80 ERA against Toronto which is the highest ERA against any opponent he has faced more than once. Four of his last 15 starts where he has allowed at least six runs have come against the Blue Jays. Marco Estrada has been average in his three starts since entering the rotation but he has done enough to keep Toronto in games as the bullpen has allowed eight earned runs in his games. This is his first ever start against the Mariners, a big advantage. 10* (918) Toronto Blue Jays

    Matchup Selection W/L
    MLB  |  May 22, 2015
    Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees
    Texas Rangers
    +173 at 5Dimes
    Play Type: Top Premium

    The Yankees are in the midst of a big slump and have fallen out of first place in the American League East. After opening with a win at Tampa Bay to open their most recent roadtrip, the Yankees went 1-7 the rest of the way. Texas was able to notch a second straight win over Boston to take the series and going back, it has been very solid on the road with wins in eight of its last 11 games all of which have been as underdogs. Colby Lewis has been extremely solid in the rotation despite coming off his worst start where he allowed five runs against Cleveland. Even with that, he owns a 3.06 ERA and most important, a 1.12 WHIP in eight starts. He has a 2.67 ERA in his last four starts against the Yankees. Michael Pineda is also coming off his worst start of the season and while his numbers are very similar to those of Lewis, his price is overinflated here because of the names and not the production. 10* (915) Texas Rangers

    Matchup Selection W/L
    MLB  |  May 22, 2015
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves
    Milwaukee Brewers
    +123 at 5Dimes
    Play Type: Top Premium

    Milwaukee has lost two straight games including getting blasted 10-1 in this series opener on Thursday. The Brewers have scored two runs ort less in six of their last nine games, all resulting in losses, so getting the bats going is imperative. The Braves meanwhile have won two straight and five of six to move to .500 on the season despite many considering this to be a rebuilding season. Alex Wood has been hit or miss this season as only half of his eight starts have been quality outings, including going 0-4 under the lights. Despite a respectable 3.83 ERA, his 1.53 WHIP is a big concern and that balloons to 1.81 at home. Wily Peralta is coming off a poor start against the Mets but expect a bounce back similar to the one after his last poor start which was the beginning of four straight quality games. In three starts against Atlanta, he has allowed two runs or less all three times. 10* (905) Milwaukee Brewers

    SERVICE BIO

    Matt Fargo is becoming recognized as one of the best and most consistent handicappers in the world. He has been handicapping professionally since his college days and his hard work and dedication have paid off considerably. In his 14 years of handicapping, Fargo has had winning seasons 11 times and has not had only one losing season in the past 10 campaigns. He brings with him numerous high ranking finishes in all sports with 23 Top Tens in the past five years alone including four #1's.

    Matt has appeared on numerous radio shows over the last few years giving out sought after information, free plays and spot-on analysis that the bettor needs. He is commonly referred to as "Mr. Analysis" as his game day reports are considered to be some of the finest and most thorough available anywhere. If you want reasoning for a play, Matt gives it to you.

    Rating Scale

    Play Rating will be displayed in each title and range anywhere from 5* to 10* for Premium Plays and 3* for Free Plays.

    Enforcer this is the Signature Play for Matt and is usually backed with a 10* Rating unless otherwise noted.

    Supreme Annihilator this is typically a favorite or a pickem that Matt feels has the opportunity to destroy the line.

    Dark Horse Dandy this is an underdog that is being faded for the wrong reasons and usually has a chance to win a game outright.

    Star Attraction this is a game that can be seen on national television providing great watch and win opportunities.

    Total Dominator while rare, these are the best over/under releases and occur more in football and baseball than any other sports.

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    5/22/15 Top Sports Picks

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