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Take Braves -122 (3.5 Dime MLB POD
Back with our POD here today with the Braves as they send Hudson up against the Marlins Josh Johnson. Hudson who spent the first 5 months on the DL rehabbing from Tommy John surgery will make his 6th start here today. I believe it's going to be his best start yet. He's on 5 days rest which the Braves are 19-7 in his last 26 times on 5 days rest, and he has only thrown 87 pitches in his last 2 starts. Also you have to remember Hudson has just 30.1 innings on his arm, while Johnson has 199.1.

Josh Johnson has had a great season there is no mistake about it! However in 2006-2008 September has always been his worst month with a 4.77 ERA. He's on 6 days rest because he was recovering from the flu which looks like he gave to the other Johnson Nick Johnson who could miss tonight's game. I expect Josh to be a little rusty off 6 days rest is not your traditional rest period of 5. Look for him to have some control and issues with spotting his fast ball and the Braves should take advantage. Braves have hit Johnson will this year in his 2 starts which were at home he has given up 6 ER in 12.2 IP on 13 hits and 4 BB. Again both games were at home and on the road he has an ERA that is 0.93 runs higher than his home ERA. He really has not been his dominant self as of late in my opinion allowing 18 base runners in just 11 IP. Seems as though the Marlins are not going to push him now that they are basically out of he playoff talk, and look for them to lay an egg here today.

Braves on the other hand trail the Rockies by just two games, and they have everything going for them with Hudson on the mound. Hudson has dominated the Marlins over his career as they are hitting just .223 off him and more importantly have 0 HR! Plain and simple the Marlins win with HR especially when Nick Johnson is out of the lineup which looks like he may be. Cantu 5-11 (.455 average) has the best stats vs. Hudson followed by Ramirez 9-31, and Uggla 9-31 after that their is a dramatic fall. Hudson faced the Marlins in his first start off the DL and he won going 5.1 innings giving up 6 H and 3 BB allowing 2 ER and 5K's. It was a sloppy game for him and now in his 6th start I expect him to be that much better! Look for an 8K 7IP type game from Hudson followed by a bullpen that has a .69 ERA in their last 5 games. This bullpen is also well rested as the Braves are averaging 6.2 IP from their starters in their last 10 starts. Marlins have won 4 of 7 in Atlanta this year, but they are 17-36 in their last 53 and are 1-4 in their last 5 vs. RH starter including a .214 average scoring 3.32 runs per 9 innings in their last 10 vs. RHP with a bullpen ERA 5.28. I just do not trust the Marlins in this situation despite having their ace on the mound. Braves have had success against Johnson and this game means much more than them and I fear the Marlins packed it in last night when they could not score a run.