**5 Dime MLB POD **Highest Ranking Play! Guaranteed or 7 day

[Pick Bot]

Cubs Run Line Game #1 Action (Morton/Lilly) (Line Updated when released!) (5-Dime POD)
I'm going with the Cubs in game 1 they are 4-0 in their last 4 game 1's! They will be sending their ace to the mound in Ted Lilly who has been a different creature at home and during the day. Also as we know the Cubs are simply a day team this year they have scored more runs per 9 during the day than at night. Pittsburgh on the other hand is the opposite with -0.77 runs created per 27 outs during the day than at night. The same is for their pitcher Charlie Morton who struggles on the road and even more during the day. Pirates have also lost 10 games to the Cubs this year and all 10 including last nights 6-0 defeat by 1+ run! 78% of the Pirates road losses have been by 1 run.

Let's go over the starting pitchers!

Charlie Morton, I have been right on him a lot this year. A former opponent of mine I know him a little bit better than many others. He's just not been the same on the road. He is still a growing pitcher and struggles with his control and locating his pitches around the plate. On the road this year he has a 1-5 record and 7.45 ERA compared to his home ERA of 3.10. He's been significantly worse against LH hitters and during the day where he posts an 11.65 ERA. In his 2 career starts against the Cubs he has not gotten out of the third inning and has given up 14 ER. I expect that to improve, but it won't be nearly enough against the Cubs LHP Ted Lilly.

Lilly has just been amazing at home this year with a 1.60 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. During the day is his best time to pitch where he has an 8-3 record with a 2.55 ERA and 0.98 ERA. He has two starts vs. the Priates this year and had 14 K"s in 13 IP giving up 4 ER this year. I expect an even more dominating performance on Wednesday as this will be his last start of the 2009 season. September has been his best month for pitching over the last three years with a 10-4 record and a 3.05 ERA. It has been no different this year as he has a 1.54 ERA in his last 5 starts with a 0.86 WHIP. Pirates are 12=39 in their last 51 road games vs. LH starter and 2-8 in their last 10 with Morton as a dog. Pirates are also 3-14 their last 17 in Chicago and Cubs are 21-5 at home when Lilly starts L26. I love the run line in this situation especially with the Pirates bullpen struggles over the last 10 games they have a 6.68 ERA while the Cubs have a 2.15 ERA. Along with that is the Pirates struggles to get on base vs. LH pitching with a .207 average.