4-Dime MLB POD + 1-Dime Bonus (4-2 This Post Season)

[Pick Bot]

Take Dodgers -135 (4-Dime POD) + Take Under 7.5 runs (1-Dime bonus)
I can't pass up on the Dodgers at home in this situation. We have two aces matching up for the fourth time in their career in Clayton Kershaw and Cole Hamels two of the games best left handed pitchers. Hamels has dominated the Dodgers in his career, and Kershaw has pitched well too.

Cole Hamels is 4-2 vs. the Dodgers and has only given up 3 ER in 23 innings in LA. However, this year the road did not treat him well or the Phillies when he pitched as he was 3-6 with a 4.99 ERA and the team was 7-8, but one of those wins came in a complete game performance when he out dueled Clayton Kershaw in a 3-0 victory. However, I see the Dodgers getting to him a bit this time as Hamels has yet to prove that he is as sharp as he was last post season. With lots on his mind with the new baby he should be settled a bit more which is why I like the under as well. However, once this game gets turned over to the bullpen it just won't be the same. The Phillies have the worse bullpen and although it looked like they had things fixed last round I'm still not buying into a bullpen that is miles away from where the Dodgers are. Expect a close game by no doubt, but once this game gets to the bullpen the home team (Dodgers) have a major advantage. I think Kershaw will get this game to the bullpen with the lead.

Kershaw gave up 0 ER in his last performance and the key players for the Phillies Utley and Howard have both struggled big time vs. the Dodgers this year. Kershaw went 5.1 IP gave up 4 hits and 3 BB's in his home start vs. the Phillies this year. Kershaw on the season has a 1.89 ERA at home that is significantly better than Hamels road 4.99 ERA. Left handed hitters are just hitting .173 with a .486 OPS against Kershaw and last time I checked the Phillies have a good amount of lefties including Utley and Howard who should struggle tonight. Right handed hitters don't fare much better with a .208 average and a .611 OPS.

The Under- Phillies are under 4-1 last 5 meetings in LA, and the Dodgers are under 12-3-1 in Kershaws last 16 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. the under is 2-0-1 when Hamels pitches in LA, and 8-2-1 in his last 11 starts. I expect some struggles early as each team has not swung the bat against live pitching in a few days and that should impact the teams early against two young left handed hitters.