Thursday's Free Pick (11-4 L15) 6-1 L7 - 1DIME PLAY **change

[Pick Bot]

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We come off our 1st Free Pick loss yesterday as Haren got zero support from his hitters in a 2-1 defeat.
Total moved to 9.5 runs and we will take advantage of this!

Tigers go for the sweep against the Cubs in Detroit here today. The Cubs have scored just 7 runs in their last 3 games of a 10 game road trip that started. They have left a total of 31 runners on base here.

The line opened at -120 in favor of the Cubs and Ted Lilly and with 58% of the betting public riding with the road chalk the line has fallen to -115 in most places. I think Vegas might be expecting a solid bounce back start from Galarraga who has struggled mightily here as of late.

A couple things going for Galarraga that sets him up for a solid pitching performance in my opinion. The Cubs are struggling particularly against RHP .269 and 3.05 R/9 innings in their last 5 games. Galarraga will also have the liberty of pitching during the day where he has had his most success this year with a 3.38ERA. Most importantly the Cubs have never faced Galarraga before which means they are going to struggle early to adjust to the RHP.

On the other side of the mound we have Ted Lilly who has just been pitching and pitching. He has to be a bit frustrated that in his last three starts he has 1 win despite a 0.98 WHIP and a 2.21 ERA. He also throws well during the day 2.59ERA vs. 3.42 at night. He is pitching his best baseball right now and owns a 5-2 record with a 2.78ERA over his last 10 starts. The Tigers are hitting just .211 off LHP in their last 10 games and they have a .180 average vs. Lilly in 89AB.

Worth Noting:
Under is 10-1 in Lilly's last 11 vs. a team with a winning record
Under is 9-3 in Barret's last 12 behind home plate vs. CHC.

Take Under 9.5 runs (-110) between CHC/DET 1DIME FREE PLAY