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64% ATS since 2012 during Week #5 - 58.8% ATS Backing This T

  
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64% ATS since 2012 during Week #5 - 58.8% ATS Backing This T

Postby Pick Bot » Sat Sep 30, 2017 3:32 pm

Freddy Wills's Comments
college football betting expert picks this season
Freddy Wills's Pick
Tulsa +7.5 2.2% play
Tulsa +7.5 2.2% play
- 58.8% ATS career backing this team
Tulsa was only a 3 point dog last year at Navy, and this year at home they are a 7.5 point dog? I know Tulsa lost a ton on offense, but they still have one of the better running games and should be able to run the ball here with their QB President and RB De'angelo Brewer, who is this year's Kareem Hunt in my opinion. This line is 8 points away from where it would have been in pre-season. The reason? Tulsa just came off an ugly game against New Mexico, but that's giving us some value here, and it also gave Tulsa's defense the ability to see the option a little bit and they played pretty well holding New Mexico to just 1 TD in 5 red zone trips.

This was a 40-42 score last year in a game that was decided by the refs at the end of the game. There is no doubt Tulsa remembers it and may have even been peaking ahead to this game which is their conference opener. They held Navy on 4th and 1 at the 50 with under 2 minutes to play. They caused a fumble before the whistle and would have had the ball with 1:42 to play at the 50 yard line. The referees said the fumble came after whistle which it did not. Tulsa's DE Jesse Brubaker got called with an unsportsmanlike penalty which gave Navy the first down. Brubaker is now a senior and he certainly remembers this game from a year ago.

Tulsa has actually played a far tougher schedule, Oklahoma State & Toledo are legit Top 25 teams, and although Tulsa is not as good as last year neither is Navy in my opinion. Navy played Cincinnati and gave up well over 400 yards and 6.36 yards per play which was over 2 yards higher than what they were averaging previously. Navy could also be peaking ahead to next week's game against Air Force who took back the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy in 2016. Tulsa still has a very good offensive line and two very good runners. I think they can stick right with Navy in this game and even pull the upset. The key will be stopping Navy in the red zone and they have definitely practiced defending the option in pre-season considering they are in game 2 of a 3 game stretch (Tulane next week) of seeing the option.
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