Thursday's Hot & Cold Starters | 7/28/11 & Free PICK

[Freddy Wills]

Plenty of opportunity for the Tigers to score more than 1 run off Danks and they just could not get it done but we are 12-7 in our last 19 free pick articles this month. We come back firing on Thursday with what we feel is a sure winner so you won't want to miss out on this . Not as much action on tap for Thursday and I'm sure many of you will be following the crazy for free agency. Thursday we have just two cold starters and only five hot starters so this will be a short preview.


Red Sox RL -128 (2.5* FREE PLAY) Beckett has been red hot this year and so have the Red Sox with the bats. Beckett particularly is 3-0 with a 0.90 WHIP and 1.80 ERA over his last 3 starts and he'll go in the day start on Thursday where the Red Sox are 24-8 this year and Beckett has a 2.14 ERA with 0.81 WHIP in day starts in 2011. Royals on the other hand are 14-19 and although they have hit well their pitching and the wins just have not come and that's definitely the case with their scheduled starter Luke Hochevar who can show a glimpse of his potential at home but on the road he's not the same as he has an ERA over 5 on the road this year and has not been any better during day starts. He's having a rough time this month and has an ERA over 6 in his last 3 starts and over 6 in his career during day starts and in July. Red Sox are the #1 day team in offense sporting a .883 OPS while scoring 6.66 runs per game.

More on Beckett as he's 6-2 lifetime vs. the Royals with a 2.26 ERA and in his 3 home starts he's got a 1.44 ERA vs. them. Hochevar on the other hand has 4 starts vs. the Red Sox none since 2009 but a 7.94 ERA and 1.85 WHIP does not bode well for him. Red Sox have 74 active at bats vs. him with a .378 average and 1.154 OPS. KC is 20-45 in their last 65 games as an under dog while Boston is 46-18 in their last 64 overall and 39-15 as a favorite over their last 54. Why are we telling you this? Well the Red Sox have won 78% (25 of 32) of their home games by more than 1 run. They have also won 10 of their last 12 vs. the Royals by more than 1 run as well so we think these are great odds for a team that is 23-9 in their last 32 home games vs. KC.

Other Hot Starters L3 Starts:
Scott Baker - (3-0, 17.1 IP, 0.87 WHIP, 0.00 ERA)
Matt Harrisson (3-0, 22 IP, 0.95 WHIP, 2.05 ERA)
Matt Cain (2-1, 18 IP, 1.22 WHIP, 2.00 ERA)
Jaime Garcia (2-1, 20.1 IP, 1.18 WHIP, 1.77 ERA)


Cold starter with the best chance to win well we have no choice but to give that to Joel Pineiro at +121 odds as he's got a 2.37 WHIP and 9.24 ERA over his last 3 starts. The only other cold starter is Luke Hochevar and he goes up against our free pick. Pineiro's last start at Detroit he gave up 9 ER so I think he'll have a little bit to prove on Thursday in a day game.

Other Cold Starters L3 Starts:
Luke Hochevar (3-0, 16 IP, 1.69 WHIP, 6.19 ERA)
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