College Free Pick by #1 NCAAF Handicapper Freddy Wills

[Freddy Wills]

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We like the Midshipmen to possibly upset Penn State this week. Last week we loved Penn State at +10 and they covered easily on the road against Virginia, but now it's back home where all the turmoil exists for a Penn State team that will face a service academy for the first time since 1979 and Navy for the first time since 1974.

When Navy has the ball: It's pretty obvious what Navy is going to do here, and that's run the ball with their triple option. Now Penn State has great linebackers, but Penn State does not have much time to prepare for this game while Navy has an extra week. It also hurts Penn State that they do not regularly face the triple option actually none of the players on the team have and their head coach Bill O'Brien is an offensive coach that will have more of an offensive mindset. With that said Navy should be able to pick up first downs and control the time of possession.

As good as Penn State has been on defense they have been terrible on third down allowing 18 of 20 conversions through the first two games. This is where Navy will have a huge advantage as they are regularly in the top 20 in third down conversions ranking 15th a year ago. As bad as Navy was against a Notre Dame team superior against the run they were still able to convert 44.4% of their tries on third down. Lastly do not sleep on Navy's ability to pass with junior QB Trey Miller as he surprised Notre Dame completing 14/19 for 192 yards. Penn State also lacks depth on defense and if Navy can avoid the turnovers they should be able to wear out this defense like Ohio did in the first game watch out for an upset.



When Penn State has the ball: Like Penn State, Navy's strength is at linebacker and they are used to getting pushed around up front. However, in this game Penn State really lacks RB talent and their two guys are banged up. They've been unable to run the ball and Bill O'Brien has already shown he's not shy about passing the ball with senior QB Matt McGloin. However, McGloin is nothing special as we already know and when he gets into the red zone he struggles.

That's a huge issue because their place kicker is just terrible. He cost Penn State the game last week and I don't see much changing at home where he's sure to get some boos. Penn State will struggle to score and you should see a few red zone failures either due to kicking or the lack in confidence in the kicker leading to O'Brien to go for it on 4th down when he shouldn't. Either way I think this favors Navy who is 37-17 on in their last 54 road games.